{
 "id": "plate-xviii",
 "number": "XVIII",
 "title": "The Moves",
 "act": {
  "number": "V",
  "title": "The Encounter"
 },
 "corpus_scope": "ICLR 2018–2026 · 67,290 author–reviewer exchanges with observable outcomes",
 "question": "What do authors do in their replies, and which of it actually moves a reviewer's judgment?",
 "page_url": "https://atlas-of-judgment.pages.dev/",
 "figures": [
  {
   "id": "fig-18a",
   "title": "The currency is effort",
   "deck": "Softening doubles across reply-length deciles, 4.6% → 9.6% — no single move tracks softening as strongly as sheer volume of engagement.",
   "dom_host": "#moves-effort",
   "claims": [
    {
     "id": "18a-deciles",
     "statement": "Softening doubles across reply-length deciles, 4.6% → 9.6%.",
     "value": {
      "quantity": [
       0.046,
       0.096
      ],
      "unit": "share_softened_by_decile"
     },
     "source_island": "moves-data.json",
     "source_path": "effort[]",
     "derivation": "softening share of exchanges in the first vs. last decile of author reply length (median words), MOVES.effort array",
     "recompute": "scripts/build_moves_markers.py",
     "dom_ref": "data-moves18a=\"deciles\"",
     "verified": "claim recomputed from source island, 2026-08-25",
     "caveat_refs": [
      "association-not-causation-moves"
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "fig-18b",
   "title": "The seven moves, effort held fixed",
   "deck": "One move survives the length control: the contest. \"We respectfully disagree\" keeps a +1.4 to +2.8pp softening premium in every reply-length stratum; every other move's premium touches or crosses zero.",
   "dom_host": "#moves-marks",
   "claims": [
    {
     "id": "18b-soft-base",
     "statement": "Only 6% of the 67,290 author-reply/reviewer-response exchanges show the reviewer softening — that is the baseline every move has to beat.",
     "value": {
      "quantity": 0.0597,
      "unit": "share_of_exchanges",
      "n": 67290
     },
     "source_island": "moves-data.json",
     "source_path": "exchange_pairs[]",
     "derivation": "soft_base = 0.0597 = 5.97% ≈ 6% of the 67,290 author-reply/reviewer-response exchange pairs where the reviewer's post-response judgment softened or reversed",
     "recompute": "scripts/build_moves_markers.py",
     "dom_ref": null,
     "verified": "checked against shipped JSON, 2026-08-25",
     "caveat_refs": [
      "written-judgment-only"
     ]
    },
    {
     "id": "18b-contest",
     "statement": "One move survives the length control: the contest keeps a +1.4 to +2.8pp softening premium in every reply-length stratum; every other move's premium touches or crosses zero.",
     "value": {
      "quantity": [
       0.014,
       0.028
      ],
      "unit": "pp_softening_premium",
      "move": "disagree"
     },
     "source_island": "moves-data.json",
     "source_path": "moves[]",
     "derivation": "softening-rate premium of the 'disagree' (contest) move computed inside reply-length quartiles, MOVES.moves[key='disagree']; detected in 5% of exchanges",
     "recompute": "scripts/build_moves_markers.py",
     "dom_ref": "data-moves18b=\"contest\"",
     "verified": "claim recomputed from source island, 2026-08-25",
     "caveat_refs": [
      "association-not-causation-moves"
     ]
    },
    {
     "id": "18b-delivered",
     "statement": "The delivered experiment — the move authors invest most in — is the flattest of all: within ±0.7pp of the line, negative in three of four strata, and the most negative average premium of the seven moves (−0.27pp; the ritual thanks −0.03pp and the plain revision −0.11pp also average below zero).",
     "value": {
      "quantity": -0.00265,
      "unit": "mean_pp_premium_over_quartiles",
      "rank_of_seven": 1,
      "others_below_zero": {
       "gratitude": -0.0003,
       "revision": -0.0011
      }
     },
     "source_island": "moves-data.json",
     "source_path": "moves[]",
     "derivation": "mean of moves[key].delta_by_quartile_all over the four effort quartiles, for each of the seven moves; new_evidence is the minimum. An earlier wording claimed it was the ONLY move below zero; gratitude and revision are also below zero, and the claim was corrected 2026-08-26.",
     "recompute": "scripts/build_moves_markers.py",
     "dom_ref": "data-moves18b=\"delivered\"",
     "verified": "claim recomputed from source island; superlative corrected, 2026-08-26",
     "caveat_refs": [
      "written-judgment-only"
     ]
    }
   ]
  }
 ],
 "caveats": [
  {
   "id": "association-not-causation-moves",
   "text": "Authors choose which move to make — a contest is deployed when the author already holds a strong hand — so a move's association with softening is not proof the move itself changes minds; a reviewer already inclined to reconsider may also be the one who draws a longer, more contested reply.",
   "scope": "Fig 18a and Fig 18b move-effect estimates",
   "verified_by": null
  },
  {
   "id": "written-judgment-only",
   "text": "The outcome measure is conservative: it counts only judgment changes the reviewer put in writing. A reviewer who quietly raises a score without re-engaging the argument is invisible to this plate; the corpus keeps no rating history.",
   "scope": "the 67,290-exchange softening baseline and the delivered-experiment finding",
   "verified_by": null
  }
 ],
 "links": {
  "recompute_scripts": [
   "scripts/build_moves_markers.py"
  ],
  "data": [
   "/api/v1/data/moves-data.json"
  ],
  "related_plates": [
   "plate-xvi",
   "plate-xvii"
  ]
 }
}